Analysis | Is Joe Biden creating an election surprise?

Analysis | Is Joe Biden creating an election upset?

The trend in favor of the Republicans seems to be weakening while the Democrats are gathering good news.

Will President Joe Biden save the Democrats in the midterm elections?

We've been feeling it for a few weeks, the wind seems to have changed direction. For months, Republicans have been bulging their chests, sure to snatch the House of Representatives from the Democrats in November and maybe even pocket the Senate.

They already imagined facing a Democratic president, without any support from Congress, bound hand and foot for the second half of his term.

Some were already salivating at the thought of launching full-fledged impeachment proceedings against a breathless, weakened and wildly unpopular Biden. Whatever the reason, the more vocal and extremist ones, like Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor-Greene, would take care of it.

After all, it's fair game. The Democrats have tried to unbolt Donald Trump with two procedures, inevitably doomed to failure since in any case the Republican senators were going to pronounce a verdict of not guilty regardless of the evidence presented to them, extreme partisanship obliges.< /p>

But now, 70 days from the midterm elections, Democrats can afford to be much more optimistic. They may consider doing damage control in the House of Representatives, perhaps even narrowly retaining it, and could, perhaps, increase their presence in the Senate, according to better polls in some crucial races. The red wave is more like a ripple, the nonpartisan group The Cook Political Report recently noted, referring to the guaranteed Republican tidal wave just a few months ago.

Republicans have only one group to blame for this slide: themselves. The Trumpists and Republicans, entirely devoted to the cause of the ex-president – out of conviction or out of fear – have bet everything on the social issue of access to abortion (believing that this would establish their superiority on this polarizing dossier), on the personality of Donald Trump – who has raised increasing eyebrows since the raid – and on voter dissatisfaction with inflation and gas prices, a major issue in this country of motorists, but which tends to calm down with a drop in prices.

Donald Trump reshaped the Republican Party in his image, for better and for worse.

Above all, the Republicans have forgotten one fundamental thing: they only represent a portion of American voters. They forget that among those who voted for Trump in 2016 were the so-called independents. Those Americans who hate having a political affiliation stuck on their back eat from both political racks from one election to the next. And this bloc, which represents about 40% of the electorate, is beginning to tire of the decisions and impacts of Republican filibusters in Congress.

Trump, who selected a majority of candidates who sided with his lying camp of the stolen 2020 election, is leading the way in these midterm elections. But all of this is turning into a referendum on who he is and how much control he has over the party. The Republican Party is Trump's party, boasts the ex-president's clan.

Maybe, but it's backfiring.

If we choose Trump, we will be destroyed and we will deserve it, said in May 2016 Senator Lyndsey Graham, who was then campaigning for the Republican presidential nomination against Trump. A quote that some of his opponents like to highlight more and more.

Enlivened by the positive trend towards of his party, Joe Biden goes on the attack against the Republicans.

Meanwhile, Democrats, who usually aren't very good at selling themselves when it comes to defending their achievements, are going on the offensive. Cheered by these positive numbers, Joe Biden a few days ago, in front of Democratic supporters and backers, framed this election as a referendum on abortion access, gun safety, affordable prescription drugs, the protection of democracy, and the very survival of our planet.

So many issues on which Republicans have filibustered, especially in Congress. Republicans are extreme people who don't do anything real for you, while us Democrats delivering on our promises and taking action on the ground seems to be the leitmotif of this midterm campaign.

The partial cancellation of student debt proposed by Joe Biden, a measure eagerly awaited by young people, has been decried by Republicans.

And while Biden roundly criticizes the Republicans, the team of the official White House Twitter account has indulged in taunting the Republican lawmakers who fired red balls on the cancellation of the debt of certain students, proposed by Biden. In the face of attacks from these Republicans, the President's social media team put them in their place by talking about the hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars these lawmakers had gotten from the federal government in canceled loans as part of x27;a recovery program during the pandemic. In short, the blues go on the attack against the reds.

Typically, Democratic supporters tend to shun their party in elections outside of the presidential cycle, especially for midterm elections. Often frustrated or dissatisfied with the performance of those they have elected, they prefer to stay at home, just to punish them. However, turnout figures from recent special elections and Democratic primaries prove the opposite this time.

The mobilization of supporters Democrats is rather a good surprise for them, accustomed to less enthusiasm among their troops.

In four special elections for House seats, including in New York's 19th District, where the party's nominee has focused his campaign on abortion, Democrats have outperformed Biden in 2020. /p>

Of course, Mr. Biden remains unpopular in the polls, but while he won just 37.5% approval last July, he is now at 42.3%, according to poll aggregator Five. Thirty Eight. This is the start of a trend in the face of the 53.5% of respondents who are dissatisfied with their president.

Is this trend irreversible for Republicans? The answer may be known in a week when polls released around Labor Day set the tone for the midterm elections. Traditionally, in fact, the points collected by the parties are very often those found on election night.

If the Democratic rise is confirmed, it would in any case be as if the mold of this electoral meeting, often unfavorable to the president in office, could indeed break, to everyone's surprise.

This mid-term race risks being thrilling enough for some and devastating for others. Somewhere in Florida, there is one who must be starting to ask questions.

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