British intelligence assessed the ability of the Russian Federation to launch an offensive in the coming weeks

The ability of Russia to build up forces to significantly influence the outcome of the war in the coming weeks is unlikely. This is stated in the intelligence summary of the UK Department of Defense.

Intelligence notes that the Russian Federation has been trying to restore major offensive operations in Ukraine since the beginning of January 2023. The operational goal of the invaders is to capture the rest of the Ukrainian-held parts of the Donetsk region.

Despite this, the occupying forces manage to advance only a few hundred meters a week. The British Defense Establishment attributed this to a shortage of munitions and maneuver units needed for a successful offensive.

The Russian high command is believed to be developing plans that require understrength, inexperienced units to achieve unrealistic goals through political and professional pressure.

«Russian leaders are likely to continue demanding massive offensives. It remains unlikely that Russia will be able to build up the forces necessary to significantly influence the outcome of the war in the coming weeks,” the summary said.