The war between Russia and Ukraine may last until mid-2024. This is stated in the Bloomberg analysis, which was at the disposal of the Agency.
In order to determine the approximate duration of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Bloomberg used a model based on an analysis of military conflicts over the past 200 years. However, the agency emphasizes that the model does not give a final answer to the question of when the war will end.
This model allows for three military strategies: 1) the strategy of maneuver – these are attacks that are focused on the rapid capture of territory, and not the destruction of the enemy, 2) the strategy of attrition, in which the emphasis is on capturing and destroying enemy forces without the need for rapid advance, 3) strategy punishment aimed at inflicting the greatest damage on the enemy in order to break his will to fight, while the parties do not necessarily enter into a direct collision, strikes can be delivered by rockets or conducted in guerrilla ways.
Based on these strategies, Bloomberg notes the most likely scenarios for the further course of the war. Thus, under the first scenario, the balance of power remains unchanged and the parties continue to adhere to the strategy of attrition. In this case, the war will last 30 months until mid-2024.
The second scenario involves the completion of Russia towards a strategy of punishment. In such a scenario, the conflict could go on forever. Under the third scenario, Russia conducts a full mobilization, but this can be politically risky. Russia has not had a full mobilization since World War II, but this would widen the gap in military capability and thus shorten the projected end of the conflict. According to this scenario, the expected end of the conflict is shifted to mid-2023.
The fourth and final scenario provides for a decisive shift in the balance of power towards Ukraine. This is possible in the event of a drop in the morale of Russian soldiers or if Washington provides Kyiv with more modern weapons, which will accelerate the end of the war in favor of Ukraine.
Among other things, there is the most negative scenario, which allows the continuation of the war until 2160. This will happen if Russia no longer resorts to mobilization and chooses a strategy of punishment. However, forecasters say that the accuracy of such a forecast is low.