China is preparing a “special operation according to the Ukrainian scenario”

The unpreparedness of the world for large-scale military conflicts in the third millennium has led other authoritarian regimes to prepare new wars on the planet. Thus, China is preparing to repeat the Russian scenario with its neighbors. Beijing wants to seize the island of Taiwan, which it considers its territory.

“Originally Chinese territory”

Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province that should be reunited with the mainland, even if necessary through military force.

China's leader Xi Jinping has signed a document allowing the “non-military” use of the Chinese army. According to Radio Free Asia, such actions raise fears that Beijing is preparing to invade the island of Taiwan under the guise of a “special operation” to annex it to China.

“It basically systematically regulates the basic principles, organization and command, types of operations, operational support and political work, as well as their implementation by the troops. It lays the legal basis for conducting military operations without war,” the message says.

< p> Among the purposes of the document – maintenance of the national sovereignty, regional stability and regulation of the organization and carrying out peaceful military operations. This document takes effect June 15.

And on June 10, 2022, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fengge at the Asian Security Summit in Singapore warned Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin that if anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, then the People's Liberation Army will have no choice but to join the battle. stop any attempt to declare the island's independence and protect national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“We will pay a certain price (to occupy the island by force if we have to), but in the end we will be able to completely solve the Taiwan issue. The signal given by China at the moment is to inform the US that the result will be the same – reunification is imminent , and the US still has time to make the right choice,” the Chinese minister said, adding that China is ready for “reunification” both peacefully and by force.

Taiwan takes Ukraine as an example

In response to these threats, Taiwan's military strategists are studying Ukraine's resistance and rebuffing Russian forces to improve their own combat tactics in case China starts a forceful takeover of the island.

“Russia's use of precision-guided missiles, as well as the tactically thoughtful resistance of Ukraine, despite the fact that Russia outnumbers and outguns it, is closely observed in Taiwanese security circles,” Reuters reported.

In mid-April, Taiwan held exercises in case of war with China. Taiwan's Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said that “the example of Ukraine inspires him” and the island should also prepare for defense.

On the day of the exercise, the island's defense department issued a civil defense pamphlet with instructions on how to survive if attacked by the Chinese army. For example, what to do if the bombing starts.

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu also linked military preparations on the island to Russia's war against Ukraine.

The United States is ready to defend the island by force

China's attacks on Taiwan could provoke a major conflict even bigger than the war in Ukraine. The fact is that, unlike our country, the United States is ready to defend Taiwan by military means.

President Joe Biden has already said that the United States is ready for direct military intervention in the event of China's aggression against Taiwan. When the US President was asked a clarifying question: “For obvious reasons, you did not want to get involved in the Ukrainian conflict by military means. Are you ready to defend Taiwan by military means if it comes to that?” – Biden said, “Yes. That's a commitment we've made.”

The US President also noted that China is “playing with fire” and is already making dangerous maneuvers, the country's aircraft flies close to the island. Biden stressed that the United States is committed to the “One China” principle, but this does not mean that China has the right to “use force to seize Taiwan”.

The “One China” principle is the principle of foreign policy of states, based on which lies the recognition of the existence of only one Chinese state on the world map, despite the fact that there are two states that claim the name “China”: the People's Republic of China (mainland of China) and the Republic of China (Taiwan Island).

So far, the United States has followed the principle of “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan. On the one hand, Washington helped Taiwan develop its defense capabilities. On the other hand, they recognize the leadership in Beijing as the sole government of China since 1979. However, as Biden emphasized, this does not mean that China can take over Taiwan by force.

Reacting to Biden's words, the authorities in Beijing declared “protection of national interests.” “The determination, will and ability of the Chinese people to defend sovereignty and territorial integrity should not be underestimated,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at the same time.

The consequences will be worse than from the war in Ukraine

The topic of Beijing's possible attempt to use the Ukrainian crisis to forcefully end the problem of Taiwan independence and eliminate the Republic of China on the island, which Beijing considers a rebellious province of the PRC, is now one of the hottest in the entire Indo-Pacific region.

< p>Reuters predicts that China's attack on Taiwan will affect global trade flows more than the war in Ukraine, as it will lead to a severe shortage of semiconductor circuits, which are produced on the island. And the world depends on the chips used in electric cars and mobile phones.

“The disruption of international supply chains, the disruption of the international economic order and the chances of growth will be much greater than the war in Ukraine. There will be a shortage of supplies all over the world,” Taiwan's spokesman John Deen said.

In a word, Taiwan, after Ukraine, is becoming the most dangerous “hot spot” in the world, where a war could start, in which the United States, China and even other large countries will be drawn. As Robert Blackwill, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, points out, Washington's strategic goal with respect to Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy without provoking Chinese attacks on it.

And yes – besides, experts have fears that in the event of hostilities in Asia, our war will go by the wayside in the eyes of our Western partners, and financial assistance to Ukraine may be reduced significantly.

Expert Opinion

Ilya Kusa, International Policy Expert, Ukrainian Institute of the Future Analytical Center:

– A military conflict between China and Taiwan is always possible. This option is always on the table of Chinese leaders. But in the near future, both sides will try to avoid a collision. Beijing will wait for the results of Taiwan's 2024 presidential election. If the candidate from the opposition Kuomintang party wins, he is in favor of the peaceful reintegration of Taiwan into China. And that would be the ideal solution to the crisis. And if Beijing feels that Taiwan will seek independence or the US is preparing to recognize its independence, then the risk of an armed clash will greatly increase.

KP Help

The separation of Taiwan (the official name of the Republic of China) occurred as a result of the civil war in China in 1946-1949. Under the onslaught of the Communists, led by Mao Zedong, the remnants of government troops and the President of the Republic of China, Chiang Kai-shek, moved to Taiwan. The Republic of China existed long before the Communists came to power in mainland China, and Taiwan was one of its provinces. The island was not separated from anyone, but became the last stronghold of the legitimate government. In 1949, dual power was established in China: the Communists proclaimed the People's Republic of China, while Taiwan retained the Republic of China with the government of the Kuomintang Party.

But Beijing believes that in 1949 Taiwan Province broke away from mainland China, and its authorities are separatists like the “DNR” and “LNR” or the Russian-sponsored puppet regimes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are recognized by only 5 of the 193 UN member states. And now Taiwan is recognized only by 14 states of the world. Ukraine is not among them.