ISW: Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine

ISW: Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine

Belarus is no longer likely to invade Ukraine due to the internal dynamics in the country. This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts note that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko does not intend to enter the war in Ukraine because of the possibility of renewed internal unrest if his security apparatus is weakened due to participation in the war in Ukraine. Ukraine. Thus, in 2020 and 2021, Lukashenka relied on elements of the Belarusian armed forces as a complement to the Belarusian security services to suppress popular protests against his rule.

«Involving a large part of this security apparatus in war in Ukraine is likely to leave Lukashenka vulnerable to new unrest and resistance. Lukashenka is also likely aware that an invasion of Ukraine would undermine his authority as the leader of a sovereign country, as it would become clear that Russia's efforts to secure complete control over Belarus were successful,” the report says.

In addition, it was noted that the entry of Belarus into the war «in the worst case, will force Ukraine to temporarily divert forces and equipment from the current front lines». In addition, a Russian or Belarusian offensive from Belarus will not be able to cut Ukrainian logistical lines to the West.

Instead of invading, analysts say, Belarus will continue to help Russia fight the war in Ukraine. In particular, Belarus can offer Russia materials that it cannot receive due to international sanctions regimes.

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