ISW: Putin will try to pull Ukrainian troops to the north-eastern border before a new offensive of the invaders
Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to withdraw part of the Ukrainian army units to the northeastern border in order to disperse its forces before the Russian occupation forces advance. This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War.
Analysts suggest that the Russian dictator is creating conditions for further Russian cross-border raids into the northeastern regions of Ukraine, likely to continue internal information operations and press Ukrainian forces to the northern border regions.
ISW draws attention to the fact that on February 1, Putin held a meeting to discuss the restoration of residential infrastructure in the annexed Crimea, Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions after shelling from Ukraine. At the meeting, the Russian president said that his administration considers it a priority to stop Ukrainian shelling of the border regions, but this task is «the business of the military department».
In addition, Putin can create conditions for the escalation of cross-border raids in order to divert and disperse Ukrainian forces from the critical axes of offensive, pinning them to the northeastern border areas.
Analysts add that the invasion of the invaders from Belarus is still unlikely, and the information operation, the purpose of which – pushing Ukrainian troops to the northern border will probably fail.
«The threat of cross-border raids from the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions into the north and northeast Ukraine to deploy limited units in these areas, thus dispersing Ukrainian troops in anticipation of a likely Russian offensive in the coming months», – summed up at the Institute.