ISW: Putin's mobilization will not affect the war in the coming months

ISW: Putin's mobilization will not affect the war in the coming months

< p> Announced in Russia «partial mobilization» will not affect the course of the war in Ukraine in the coming months. This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts note that the order of the Russian dictator Putin to mobilize part of the Russian «trained» reserve, that is, persons who have completed compulsory military service, will not create a significant military force for Russia in the coming months. This may be enough to maintain the current level of the Russian armed forces in 2023 by compensating for Russian losses, although this is not obvious.

Thus, partial mobilization in the Russian Federation will not prevent Ukraine from freeing more occupied territories in winter. However, it is assumed that the Russian military called on the most capable reserves during that pre-war mobilization, suggesting that the current partial mobilization will begin by bringing in less capable personnel from the start. Russian reservists are poorly trained at first and do not undergo retraining after the draft expires.

Compulsory military service in Russia lasts only a year. Lack of retraining after this initial period hastens the degradation of acquired soldier skills over time. Few Russian reservists, other than those currently serving in Ukraine, have combat experience.

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