ISW: Russia intends to turn the tide of the war in its favor over the next six months

ISW: Russia intends to turn the tide of the war in its favor in the next six months

Russia wants to seize the initiative on the battlefield and put an end to Ukraine's counteroffensive successes. This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts suggest that the Russian leadership is preparing to launch a decisive strategic operation over the next 6 months, aimed at seizing the initiative and putting an end to Ukraine's series of operational successes.

Over the past 11 months, the Russian occupation forces have failed to achieve most of their main operational objectives in Ukraine, including the capture of Kyiv, Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the holding of Kharkiv region and Kherson. At the same time, the Russian air and missile campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure led by General Sergei Surovikin at the end of 2022 also did not lead to significant operational consequences and did not demoralize Ukrainian society.

The ISW notes that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has not abandoned his aggressive goals, but he is changing fundamental approaches to warfare. In particular, the Kremlin is stepping up efforts to create both short-term and long-term forces to wage war against Ukraine.

«Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense have announced plans to dramatically expand the conventional Russian army by forming new divisions, the resumption of military districts in western Russia that were in effect until 2010, and an increase in the draft age all point to Russia's intentions to reform the Russian army to conduct large-scale conventional warfare. The Russian military is retaining mobilized personnel for future use, a departure from the Kremlin’s original approach of sending the untrained to the front in the fall of 2022,” the report says.

Also, Russia is trying to rebuild its military-industrial base. There is also evidence that Putin is re-centralizing control of military operations in Ukraine. Meanwhile, support for the war is increasing in the information space.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Previous post CNN: US officials amazed by Ukrainian military innovation
Next post Bloomberg calculates how many weapons have been promised and handed over to Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion