The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region is progressing and forcing the Russian occupiers to retreat to more protected positions, instead of stopping the Ukrainian defenders or rejecting them. This is the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, continuous UAF attacks on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOC) in the west of the Kherson region seem to be having an increasing impact on Russian supplies on the right bank of the Dnieper.
Recent reports point to food and water shortages in occupied Kherson and, at least temporarily, a reduction in Russian artillery fire. Moreover, in some sectors of the front, “poor-quality” Russian units were defeated, which allowed the Ukrainian forces to move forward.
The ISW believes that in the coming weeks the Armed Forces of Ukraine will probably regain most, and possibly the entire western part of the Kherson region if they continue to interrupt the Russian GLOCs and move forward. At the same time, the occupiers are trying to retreat to more secure positions as part of a controlled withdrawal in order to avoid the chaotic retreat typical of the collapse of the Russian defense in the Kharkiv region.
Analysts note that the success of the Ukrainian forces may be slow if the Russian forces are coordinated. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may accelerate significantly.
Currently, Ukrainian troops continue to strengthen their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskol River in the Kharkiv region, despite Russia's efforts to contain them.
The only region where the rashists are still trying to carry out offensive operations – the Donetsk region. There are sporadic reports of limited Ukrainian counterattacks, but no evidence that Ukraine is preparing a large-scale counteroffensive operation in the area.
The ISW added that Russian President Putin is increasingly relying on irregular, poorly trained special volunteer and puppet units instead of rebuilding shattered Russian ground forces.
- President Volodymyr Zelensky promised that all of Ukraine would be free, including Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as Crimea.