ISW: The Russians launched an offensive in the Luhansk region
Institute Analysts Study of War (ISW) noticed that the Russian occupiers launched a large-scale offensive in the Luhansk region, but the Ukrainian troops prevent them from achieving significant success. This was reported on the ISW website.
According to the institute, Russian troops regained the initiative in Ukraine and launched a large offensive operation in the Lugansk region.
The pace of Russian operations along the Svatovo-Kremennaya line in western Luhansk Oblast has picked up markedly over the past week, and Russian sources say Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making minor advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, especially northwest of Svatovo near Kupyansk and west of Kremennaya.
Analysts have clarified that geolocation footage of the fighting confirmed Russian successes in the Dvurechnoye area northwest of Svatovo.
According to experts, the involvement of significant parts of at least three large Russian divisions in offensive operations in this sector indicates that the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces have not yet allowed Russian forces to achieve significant success.
Offensive the occupiers, the ISW suggests, have not yet gained full momentum; the Russian command has not yet deployed units of the 2nd motorized rifle division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District — ed.), which was deployed in the Luhansk region in January after deploying to Belarus.
< p>Although the Russian forces in the Luhansk region now hold the initiative (in the sense that the Russian forces set the terms of the battle, ending the period of the Ukrainian initiative from August 2022 — ed.), the combat effectiveness of these forces may lead to their eventual culmination at the Svatovo- Kremennaya without achieving the goals of capturing the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
«This climax is likely to create a window of opportunity for Ukrainian forces to use for their own counteroffensive»,&# 8212; says the report.
According to reports, the command of the so-called «People's Militia» self-proclaimed «DNR» took control of a Russian artillery battalion, likely as part of an effort to reinforce the degraded «DNR» on the eve of the inevitable Russian offensive.
The ISW has not previously observed Russian troops in command of «DPR» formations, and this assertion, if true, indicates that Russian troops are likely reinforcing degraded «DPR» formations. with the help of mobilized personnel mobilized in Russia itself, since the «DNR» unable to compensate for their own losses.
According to experts, the Russian Ministry of Defense will probably try to correct the low effectiveness of the «DNR/LNR» through the rapid integration of Russian personnel.
The report also says that Russian officials continue to propose measures to prepare the Russian military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine, and also likely create additional conditions for evading sanctions.
Russian officials also likely proposed these measures in coordination with a recent decree to exclude Russian officials from income tax filing requirements and proposals to abolish federal procurement procedures.
The Kremlin may be creating a system of subsidies and benefits designed with minimal oversight and accountability.
The ISW added that the lack of oversight and accountability is likely to make it easier for Russian companies to avoid international sanctions regimes targeting the Russian military industry.
&# 171;The Kremlin’s efforts to prepare the Russian arms industry for a protracted war in Ukraine rely in part on the ability of the Russian arms industry to have constant access to numerous secure supply chains of key foreign components that otherwise cannot be produced», — summarized at the institute.