ISW told how the Kremlin uses the “fall of Prigozhin”

The conflict between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the leader of the terrorist PMC «Wagner» Yevgeny Prigogine probably reached its climax against the backdrop of the Battle of Bakhmut. This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts suggest that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov seized the opportunity to deliberately spend both the elite forces and the forces of «Wagner» in Bakhmut to weaken Prigozhin and undermine his ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin.

In addition, Putin and the Russian defense department can use Prigozhin as a «scapegoat» for the price of an attack on Bakhmut when this offensive reaches its climax. Experts admit Putin is using Wagner's heavy casualties, reports of low morale and war crimes to divert attention from the worst problems in the Russian military.

The report also says that Prigozhin is unlikely to be able to regain Putin's good graces, which he enjoyed between May and October 2022.

« them to reduce their ambitions in order to avoid the fate of Prigozhin»,— say analysts.

Prigozhin himself has earned a bad reputation for using people as cannon fodder, and his pleas for ammunition are unlikely to serve in PMC «Wagner» attractive to recruits.

  • Prigozhin complained that he was cut off from special communications and not received in ministries.

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