The Armed Forces of Ukraine should take advantage of the mistake of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who «adjusts» their troops to conduct offensive operations. This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War.
Analysts note that Ukrainian troops continue to achieve limited success in the Luhansk region and are likely to achieve greater success if reinforced by troops from the western part of the Kherson region.
In turn, the Russian occupiers are also strengthening their defensive positions in the Luhansk region, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine are nevertheless moving forward, and there is no reason to predict that poorly trained, poorly equipped and low morale Russian reservists will be able to stop the Ukrainian troops, inspired by their victories, in their advancement.
The ISW believes that a cessation or a prolonged slowdown in hostilities over the next few months is very unlikely. The fighting is likely to intensify rather than ease as temperatures drop.
Experts stress that the fact that Putin continues to urge his generals to attack under the current circumstances is a serious military error. This is speculated to be due to psychological factors that led Putin to order the invasion, but also to Putin's need to demonstrate his toughness to a faction led, at least publicly, by the financier «Wagner» Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Thus, the Russian dictator is unlikely to seek a ceasefire unless it is accompanied by significant Ukrainian or international concessions.
- British intelligence has described how winter will affect the course of hostilities in Ukraine.