ISW: Ukraine turned the tide of the war, but the current counteroffensive is unlikely to end it

ISW: Ukraine turned the tide of the war, but the current counteroffensive is unlikely to end it

The Armed Forces of Ukraine turned the tide of the war thanks to successful counterattacks, but it is unlikely that the current offensive will completely oust the Russian occupiers from Ukrainian territory. This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that the Ukrainian forces inflicted a great defeat on Russia, recapturing almost the entire Kharkiv region during a quick counteroffensive. ISW believes that this, in particular, was facilitated by the misleading of the invaders by the fact that Ukraine was allegedly planning a counteroffensive in the Kherson region.

This helped Kyiv attack sectors from which the Russian Federation diverted its attention. The Armed Forces of Ukraine used HIMARS and other Western systems to attack Russian land lines in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, creating the conditions for the success of the operation.

However, the ISW believes that the current counter-offensive will not end the war. The campaign in northeastern Ukraine will eventually come to an end, allowing Russian troops to rebuild a stable defensive line and possibly even launch local counterattacks.

In order to liberate other occupied territories, Kyiv will have to launch new counteroffensive operations. In this regard, analysts predict that the war will drag on until 2023.

“Ukraine turned the tide of the war in its favor. Kyiv is likely to increasingly dictate the place and nature of the main hostilities, and Russia will increasingly respond inadequately to the physical and psychological pressure from Ukraine,” — experts emphasized.

  • The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation showed the withdrawal of Russian troops from most of the territory of the Kharkiv region.

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