Media: The German Ministry of Defense believes that the Russian Federation may launch a new offensive in April 2023. A strike on Kyiv and western Ukraine is possible

Media: The German Defense Ministry believes that the Russian Federation may launch a new offensive in April 2023. Possible attack on Kyiv and western Ukraine

The German Ministry of Defense believes that Russia will launch a new offensive in April 2023. In this case, two scenarios are possible, the German newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung reported referring to the analysis of the department, writes Kreiszeitung.

According to the first scenario of the German Ministry of Defense, Russia may launch an offensive against the Donbass, while Belarus will concentrate several thousand troops on the border with Ukraine. In this case, the Ukrainian defenders would have to withdraw part of the forces in order to repel a possible invasion from the north.

«In all likelihood, however, Lukashenka will not intervene directly in the war, but will be forced to deploy his army for threatening gestures — domestic political pressure on the ruler seems too great. However, the goal of the first scenario of the Russian offensive would be to completely take Donbass under control», — the newspaper writes.

According to the second possible development of events, the troops of the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko may turn out to be decisive for the war, but so far such a possibility is considered rather unlikely. The German Ministry of Defense believes that if Belarus goes to Kyiv according to this scenario, then Russian soldiers will attack the Donbass and may try to advance into western Ukraine in order to block the supply of weapons and force the Ukrainian government to capitulate.

The publication notes that such the scenario is considered unlikely because it requires a general mobilization in Russia.

  • According to the NYT, officials in the Russian Federation cannot yet agree on whether to launch a new military offensive in Ukraine this winter.

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