Military analyst: Russia does not have the strength for a large-scale offensive in the Donbass
The Russian army has exhausted the possibilities for conducting major offensive operations and can now achieve success only with the support of PMC «Wagner». This is stated in the distribution of the military analyst Rochan Consulting Konrad Muzyka, writes the Agency. News with reference to The New York Times.
As Muzyka writes, more or less the same thing happens at the front every week: the invaders attack almost along the entire line of contact, but do not achieve serious success. The capture of villages north of Bakhmut is all that the Russian army has managed to achieve in recent weeks.
“Russia does not currently have the capacity to conduct larger operations and achieve an operational breakthrough. This is clearly visible near Kremennaya, where the deployment of theoretically well-equipped, better trained and more motivated forces essentially did nothing,” the analyst says.
According to him, Russia cannot achieve success in near the border of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and move towards the Liman lost in the autumn.
Since attacks on other sectors of the front also fail, the Russian army apparently does not have an offensive potential, Muzyka writes. He also notes that PMC «Wagner» “unable to sustain the current pace of attack indefinitely,” and the conflict between the group and the Russian Ministry of Defense is likely to hasten the moment when the PMC loses combat capability.
Kyiv’s goal, according to the analyst, is to allow Russia “blow off steam” before launching their own major counterattack.
The Russian army apparently cannot attack in large numbers, writes The New York Times. According to the newspaper, a series of attacks by small forces in the Donbass was first seen as an attempt at reconnaissance in force. However, now observers are increasingly saying that this is the maximum that “depleted Russian forces” are currently capable of.
The Ukrainian military, with whom the NYT spoke, note that the soldiers going on the attack are inexperienced, which is evident from their actions. on the battlefield.
At the same time, analysts warn against underestimating the Russian army, the newspaper writes: Moscow still has thousands of tanks, artillery pieces and a numerical advantage. The Russian army can still do more, and the generals can keep troops in reserve for the spring offensive, analysts say.