“Procrastination is a characteristic feature of Putin’s strategy”: Military analyst Rob Lee on the failure of the Russian strategy in the war

Western analyst, researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies Rob Lee commented on the changes in Russian military strategy. This is reported by The New Yorker.

According to him, one of the characteristic features of the Russian strategy is procrastination. So, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, before making any tough decision, waits until the situation slows down or something goes wrong.

In particular, he resisted the announcement of mobilization for a long time. Citizens feared that this could happen as early as May 9 or later in the summer. But the announcement came only at the end of September, when, after the loss of most of the Kharkiv region and the unsuccessful offensive in the Kherson region, it became obvious to everyone that the Russians did not have enough manpower to hold the front line.

«The short-term strategy was probably: “Let's prevent our lines from being breached, try to hold on to what we have, and wait for mobilization. And then we can do better and maybe even get back on the offensive», — notes the analyst.

Speaking of the failure of the Russian strategy, Lee suggested that the Russians used a template from 1968 or 1979, when the USSR invaded Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan, to invade Ukraine. This was surprising, since in both of those operations the Russians did not expect much resistance and did not seek to destroy the armed forces of these countries.

He draws attention to the fact that the Russian units did not even know that they were going to war. Most soldiers learned of this less than a day before the invasion. They were simply ordered to advance to Ukrainian cities as quickly as possible, and they got involved in battles for which they were not ready.

«It is hard to imagine how much worse one can prepare an army for an invasion than the Kremlin did it. The conclusion suggests itself that this was an FSB operation. The plan was to change the regime in Kyiv, and the secret service probably thought that they had enough collaborators in Ukraine and that they could do it fairly quickly. And that the Russian military will occupy the cities before the APU has time to respond. But they were not ready for the resistance of the Ukrainians», — the analyst noted.

  • On January 11, Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov was appointed the new commander of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Surovikin is now his deputy.
  • The ISW believes that Surovikin's demotion is a blow to Prigozhin and the security forces.

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