Belarusians are not ready for an offensive
What can Kyiv expect from all these factors? Will the Belarusian dictator agree to send his troops to Ukraine? Most military analysts are inclined to believe that it is not. Oleg Zhdanov believes that entry into the war is very risky for the self-proclaimed leader of Belarus. After all, this will not be a surprise for the Ukrainian military, and the Belarusian military will be rebuffed at the border.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine notes that for a new offensive from the territory of Belarus, it needs to create a powerful offensive grouping, but now Ukraine does not see such a grouping. Recall that after February 24, Belarusian troops were put on high alert several times, against the backdrop of constantly appearing reports that they could join the Russian army’s invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Belarusian military has not yet taken a direct part in the war against Ukraine. And all these military exercises and exercises on the border are just a picture for Vladimir Putin that, they say, Lukashenka is preparing for war.
“Putin constantly demands that Lukashenka intervene in this war, but he skillfully avoids such an adventure,” Fedor Venislavsky, member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense, believes.
It is not profitable for Lukashenka to get involved in the war
Russian opposition politician Gennady Gudkov made his case that Lukashenka would not dare to go to war with Ukraine. “All Lukashenka's “power” rests on his army, which keeps the Belarusians in fear. If he now sends troops to die in Ukraine, his own population will very quickly destroy him,” Gudkov notes.
And besides this, if If Russia loses the war in Ukraine, then Putin's defeat will spread to Lukashenka, of course, up to the prospect of sitting in the dock. “He takes this option into account,” Radio Liberty believes.
But Moscow's victory is not safe for Lukashenka either, since in this case he will be completely under the control of Putin, who may want to replace him. Lukashenka also takes this option into account. And therefore, it is better for him not to get involved in the war in Ukraine.
It is also important that the Belarusians themselves do not want to fight in Ukraine. After the Russian attack on Ukraine, men began to leave Belarus en masse, who are afraid of military conscription. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing its own sources, has repeatedly reported that the servicemen of the Belarusian armed forces do not want to participate in the war against Ukraine on the side of the Russian Federation.
< h4>Vladimir Fesenko, political scientist:
– From a political point of view, joining the war in Ukraine is a huge risk for Lukashenka. In case of defeat or even partial military failures, Lukashenka can lose much more than Putin. He may simply lose power in the country. The situation in the Belarusian society and the army can change dramatically not in his favor. He understands this very well. And Lukashenka can enter the war only in one case – if he sees an unequivocal victory for Russia in Ukraine. And so he will not go further than providing the Russians with his territory.