Putin goes to Lukashenka. Will they show where the attack was coming from?

Putin is going to Lukashenka. Will they show where the attack was prepared from?

The lack of success makes Moscow look for new reserves to continue the war in Ukraine. And almost the only source of such reserves for Vladimir Putin is Belarus. Literally from the very beginning of the war, he has been trying to force Alexander Lukashenko to send his troops into our country. The self-proclaimed dictator promises but does nothing. But this time the Russian president decided to take on him personally.

Putin is going to put pressure on him

For the first time since the beginning of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will travel to the Belarusian city of Grodno, where he will meet with the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. According to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Lukashenko and Putin are meeting “on the sidelines of the Forum of the Regions of the Union State, which will be held on June 30 and July 1.”

In fact, most experts believe that the Russian President will again try persuade his colleague to join the war against Ukraine.

“The fact is that the Russian Federation is running out of steam. And no matter how hard it is for us today in the Luhansk direction, we see that there is no longer that offensive potential that was back in May-April. Today, Russia does not have an operational reserve, it takes time to create it. Putin urgently needs Belarus to open a second front, start hostilities, tie up part of the forces of the Ukrainian army in the north east, and thereby pull our troops back,” military expert Oleg Zhdanov believes.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine notes that now Belarus keeps a certain military contingent on the border. “There are now up to seven Belarusian battalions on the border in the Brest and Gomel regions. This is up to four thousand personnel. But we must understand that there are also Russian troops there,” said Alexander Motuzyanyk, spokesman for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

At the same time, Belarus has been holding a series of diverse military exercises since the beginning of June. According to the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, all categories of servicemen (including conscripts), units, military units, formations and military command and control bodies are involved in such “trainings”.

Now these exercises have extended their military exercises until June 25. According to the Belarusian Defense Ministry, their military “will work out the practical skills of the personnel of military units and logistics support units in performing tasks in accordance with their assignment in a dynamically changing environment.” Belarus also began “mobilization exercises” on the border with Ukraine. The Belarusian military will be pulled to the training camps for military reserve. The commissariats want to “work out” the issues of notifying and sending citizens to military units.

Military exercises on the border of Belarus are only exercises so far. They will probably remain so. Photo: Ruslan Guk, Vayar/t.me/modmilby

Belarusians are not ready for an offensive

What can Kyiv expect from all these factors? Will the Belarusian dictator agree to send his troops to Ukraine? Most military analysts are inclined to believe that it is not. Oleg Zhdanov believes that entry into the war is very risky for the self-proclaimed leader of Belarus. After all, this will not be a surprise for the Ukrainian military, and the Belarusian military will be rebuffed at the border.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine notes that for a new offensive from the territory of Belarus, it needs to create a powerful offensive grouping, but now Ukraine does not see such a grouping. Recall that after February 24, Belarusian troops were put on high alert several times, against the backdrop of constantly appearing reports that they could join the Russian army’s invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Belarusian military has not yet taken a direct part in the war against Ukraine. And all these military exercises and exercises on the border are just a picture for Vladimir Putin that, they say, Lukashenka is preparing for war.

“Putin constantly demands that Lukashenka intervene in this war, but he skillfully avoids such an adventure,” Fedor Venislavsky, member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense, believes.

It is not profitable for Lukashenka to get involved in the war

Russian opposition politician Gennady Gudkov made his case that Lukashenka would not dare to go to war with Ukraine. “All Lukashenka's “power” rests on his army, which keeps the Belarusians in fear. If he now sends troops to die in Ukraine, his own population will very quickly destroy him,” Gudkov notes.

And besides this, if If Russia loses the war in Ukraine, then Putin's defeat will spread to Lukashenka, of course, up to the prospect of sitting in the dock. “He takes this option into account,” Radio Liberty believes.

But Moscow's victory is not safe for Lukashenka either, since in this case he will be completely under the control of Putin, who may want to replace him. Lukashenka also takes this option into account. And therefore, it is better for him not to get involved in the war in Ukraine.

It is also important that the Belarusians themselves do not want to fight in Ukraine. After the Russian attack on Ukraine, men began to leave Belarus en masse, who are afraid of military conscription. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing its own sources, has repeatedly reported that the servicemen of the Belarusian armed forces do not want to participate in the war against Ukraine on the side of the Russian Federation.

Expert Opinion

< h4>Vladimir Fesenko, political scientist:

– From a political point of view, joining the war in Ukraine is a huge risk for Lukashenka. In case of defeat or even partial military failures, Lukashenka can lose much more than Putin. He may simply lose power in the country. The situation in the Belarusian society and the army can change dramatically not in his favor. He understands this very well. And Lukashenka can enter the war only in one case – if he sees an unequivocal victory for Russia in Ukraine. And so he will not go further than providing the Russians with his territory.

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