Western intelligence has named three scenarios for the development of the war – they do not talk about the victory of Ukraine

Western intelligence has named three scenarios for the development of the war - they do not talk about the victory of Ukraine

Western intelligence believes that Russia's war in Ukraine is at a critical stage , which can determine the long-term outcome of the conflict. In the near future, one of the parties may succeed – either the Russians will reach Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, or the Ukrainians will stop them. This is reported by the American edition of CNN, citing sources among officials. Here are the main points from the article.

Western intelligence sees three possible scenarios for the development of the war:

  1. Russia will increase its gains in two key eastern regions – Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
  2. The fighting will reach a stalemate and the war will drag on for months or years, resulting in huge losses on both sides and a crisis that will continue deplete the world economy.
  3. Russia may reconsider its military objectives, declare victory and try to achieve a ceasefire. Experts consider this scenario the most likely.

If Russia manages to gain a foothold in the Donbas, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be able to use this territory as a springboard for further advance into Ukraine. Also, Western officials believe that Russia is in a better position in the east, since their army is more numerous there. But this does not mean that the Ukrainian army is doomed to defeat in the Donbass.

The front lines of the conflict have degenerated into a war of attrition, both sides have suffered huge losses and are now facing a potential shortage of manpower. Russia lost about a third of its ground forces. Therefore, American intelligence officials believe that it will be difficult for Russia to achieve serious achievements without full mobilization.

Currently, hostilities are concentrated in two cities on opposite banks of the Seversky Donets – Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. The Ukrainian military is almost completely cordoned off near Severodonetsk. Western analysts believe that Ukraine has a better chance of defending Lysychansk, but there are worrying signs that Russia is trying to cut the city's supply lines by moving in from the southeast.

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