With only one hurricane since the start of the season, is it the calm before the storm?

With only one hurricane since the beginning of the season, is it the calm before the storm?

The tropical storm that formed in the North Atlantic on Thursday became a hurricane on Friday , but does not currently pose a risk to Canada.

A tropical storm, dubbed 'Danielle', formed in the North Atlantic and became a hurricane on Friday. This is the first of the season, the quietest in 25 years. But experts say it's a short-lived lull as things could heat up over the next few months.

Last year at the same date, four hurricanes had already formed in the North Atlantic, causing more than twenty deaths in total.

So far, it's very, very quiet, said Jim Prince, meteorologist at the Canadian Hurricane Center.

It's progressing very slowly towards the northeast, and it remains confined offshore. There is no major risk for Canada, assured Mr. Prince, who recognizes that Danielle is however developing very quickly.

A swallow does not, however, trust the Spring: The United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Observation Agency predicts at least 14 storms this year, including 7 hurricanes, of which 3 could become major hurricanes.

The calm noted in the North Atlantic is explained by the presence of a layer of dry air coming from Africa, according to the Canadian Hurricane Center.

< p class="e-p">A statement confirmed by Philippe Gachon, professor of geography at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).

“We have conditions that do not favor the formation of cyclones. Cyclones that form in the Atlantic generally originate from disturbances that come from the Sahara and generate storms. »

—  Philippe Gachon, professor of geography at the University of Quebec in Montreal

This is why it is necessary to monitor the end of the rainy season [generally in September, editor's note] in Africa [of the west, editor's note] to see if it will allow the formation of cyclones or tropical storms, he said.

This is why he calls for caution. This does not mean that we will not have several [hurricanes] in the coming months, and in addition, a single major storm can cause enormous damage, he underlined.

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But it is difficult to establish a direct link between the scarcity of hurricanes this year and climate change, warns Pascal Geneviève, director and co-founder of the Carbon Consulting Group.

“What is important with the climate is to look at what has happened over several consecutive years to be able to determine in which direction the metrological phenomena are going”

—Pascal Geneviève, director and co-founder of the CCG (Groupe Carbon Council).

Despite relative silence from hurricanes in the North Atlantic, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Observation Agency still stands by its forecast.

Mr. Gachon agrees more or less by saying that the context remains favorable to the formation of storms.

Currently temperatures are colder in the central Pacific than the x27;Atlantic, which gives a probability of formation of a cyclone and tropical temperatures in the Atlantic. This situation is likely to last until Christmas, argued the academic.

What's more, the Atlantic is warmer than the Atlantic. usual, which could generate storms that could reach the north of the American continent. The warmer the ocean temperatures, the greater the chance of more intense storms developing. And the Atlantic is warming faster than other oceans.

Not only is it warming on the surface, but also at depth and up to 2000 meters in some areas of the ocean, he said.

With information from Danielle Kadjo

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